Terra Firma Technology Pty Ltd (ACN 079 223 297) is a Melbourne (Australia) based company using and developing custom applications for the hydrocarbon exploration industry. The company is currently using PC based applications to handle uncertainty in geological variables in hydrocarbon reserves assessment. We also use these tools for reserves estimation and modelling of hydrocarbon charge. These applications are used for TFT and PetroConsult clients.
Monte Carlo simulation is utilised to replace point estimates of geological and economic parameters with "fuzzy" values, reflecting their uncertainty. Dependencies between variables is carried through the assessment to the economic evaluation.
Probabilities for the various risk factors associated with the geological, engineering and economic variables is determined from a database of analogues and input from experts. These values will be updated using Bayes' Theorem as new results become available.
These probabilistics models, with numerous variables and dependencies, are being developed using Microsoft's Visual Basic for Applications 5.0 and Excel 97. Excel add-ins are utilised to allow stochastic modelling of all input variables. Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications is the development environment included in several applications within the Microsoft Office family. Office based development tools are proven and speed-up the development process. They enhance and extend existing functionality (rather than requiring developers to start from scratch) allowing applications to be developed faster and cheaper. Because they are based on applications that are already familiar, tools can be used by individuals with little training and support. Extensive context specific on-line help from TFT will compliment them.
An example of a small software package from reserves estimation can be downloaded from this software site
Information on the work of Terra Firma Technology Pty Ltd can be obtained by sending us an email